In the blog post Is Africa building towards collapse? Issac writes in the comments section;
"Lauritz (von Gil-Hausen) is prescient here. Africans are morlocks in any situation where they're numerous and approximately close to other human populations. Perhaps most disturbingly, hybrids between subspecies with them are generally just as prone to their characteristic behaviors. The African population boom is a truly under-appreciated disaster scenario while other sub-populations continue the moral farce that oppression is the cause of this behavioral disparity."Parenthetical and link are mine.
In my article on white nationalism I estimated that blacks would undergo a population collapse equal to all other racial groups, and that this collapse would occur at a later time than other racial groups due to the staggered implementation of urbanization and birth control across the planet. This assumes that blacks respond in a way identical to other races. The potential problem with my assumption is that the ability to even use contraceptives is based on long-term thinking. Do Africans have that ability at the same level as other races? Or rather, is their relative lack of long-term thinking fatal to them? Richard Lynn's Cold Winter' Theory holds that IQ varies by race because cold climates kill off people who lack long-term thinking ability.
Long-term thinking lies on a scale. A group may have less of it and still avoid disaster.
As far as I can tell there are three possible futures.
Possible future no. 1. Africans have long-term thinking sufficiently comparable to other races. They will urbanize and use birth control like all other races. The "black planet" scenario will not materialize. They will not exceed about 3 billion.
Possible future no. 2. Africans have long-term thinking that is comparable enough, but the lack of competent governance is creating land insecurity, and stifling urbanization. Since the biggest factor in decreased birth rates is urbanization, it may be that African's relative lack of urbanization is the cause of its explosive population growth. Land insecurity is a big problem, and it may be complicating urbanization. In this case the issue is one of effective government. See the Brookings Institute article on the issue.
If this scenario is the case, Africans will grow at a moderately high rate, and then shrink either due to collapse, delayed urbanization, or both. They will not exceed 3 or 4 billion.
Possible future no. 3. Africans lack enough long-term thinking that other homo sapiens possess in such drastic disparity that they will follow the trajectory of an animal r-selected overgrowth. The will reach at least 4 billion, probably shoot through this limit, and then die off by the billions. The world will try to feed them until it becomes politically unsustainable. Food prices will rise until the borders are closed. Invest in farm ownership.
A vast human experiment is about to take place. The effects will determine—at least partially—how Africans are viewed as human—or not. A world of 4 billion starving Africans will reach compassion fatigue fairly quickly. Post hoc justifications will kick in, and regardless of the actual cause of the overgrowth: whether liberal food subsidies, insecure land tenure, or African genetic nature, dehumanization will proliferate as the cognitive bias known as the just-world hypothesis kicks in.
Below is a comparison of two graphs. One shows the UN projection of African population growth. Another shows the population of St. Mathew Island's reindeer herd. The second graph is to give you a comparison of what happens to r-selected beings who grow beyond the carrying capacity of the land due to (typically) human food subsidies. This is why governments post signs telling you not to feed the wildlife.
It may be that racists are being a little "over-optimistic" from their perspective, (pessimistic from everyone else's). They sound positively giddy about the prospect of 4 + billion deaths.
My bet is for Possible future no. 2. We will see who is right.